EUR / USD remains stable at 1.1300, the GBP / USD at 1.3545 and USD / JPY at 115.85 in Asia today, largely unchanged from the New York close and with USD / JPY ignoring the noise of “watching currencies closely” from the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Slightly firmer yields continue to limit the decline in the US dollar against major currencies, which appear to be on a maintenance pattern to non-farm payrolls. I expect a breakout of the dollar index of 95.50 or 96.50 for the next directional signal.
The AUD / USD risk sentiment indicators and the NZD / USD remained under pressure overnight, hinting that despite the calm seen elsewhere, nerves abound over the story of the Fed’s tightening and rising US yields AUD / USD and NZD / USD ended around 0.805, down to 0.7160 and 0.6750, where they remain in Asia. The risk remains to the downside. USD / CAD broke the trend overnight and strengthened falling to 1.2715, likely due to the more than 2% rise in oil overnight. It remains to be seen if the sell below 1.2700 can be sustained.
Asian currencies are quiet today, rising slightly, but weakened overnight through some significant levels against the US dollar. USD / KRW has risen through 1200.00 to 1202.00. The USD / PHP It is up 51.20 and the USD / IDR to 14,400.00 approaching 14,500.00. USD / MYR has ignored the rise in oil, rising to 4.2100 before falling back to 4.2000. The Thai baht also joined them, weakening more than 1.0% as USD / THB is trading today at 33.578. The yuan and the Indian rupee continue to outperform. For the rest, it will be interesting to see if their respective central banks step out of the shadows and start offering dollars again. His hands will stay ahead of the US data tonight, but next week could be a different story. Slowly, the Fed’s normalization story is seeping into weaker Asian currencies, leaving regional central banks with a policy dilemma.
Euro-Dollar Analysis
Jose Antonio Gonzalez, the technical analyst of Investment Strategies, analyzes the Euro Dollar:
Over the last few months, the price of the US dollar index develops a lateral or consolidation movement, perfectly-identified between 96.94 and 95.54, movement that (1) we classify within a secondary or medium upward structure. term, (2) allowing the normalization of readings of bullish excesses or accumulated overbought in the MACD oscillator.
Future Dollar Index in graph daily newspaper with Mean amplitude range in points (upper window) MACD (middle window) and trading volume (bottom window)
From the above, we can begin to conclude that we are facing a consolidation in time that does not alter or damage its structure and that, even, reinforces it, especially while the price manages to stay above the large area of previous resistance, now converted into zones of support after its overcoming, which we project around 94,795 / 94,570.
