Bitcoin like Apple? The idea of ​​the director of Fidelity

In his recent Twitter post, Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, says the number of active bitcoin addresses continues to grow steadily despite falling prices, comparing the largest cryptocurrency to tech giant Apple. Timmer cites Apple’s massive growth over the past three decades as another example of an S-curve.

An S-curve is a mathematical model that is applied to demonstrate growth in a variety of different fields. The model helps illustrate the introduction and adoption of certain technologies such as cell phones and the Internet. The executive estimated that Apple’s network has grown 53 times since 1996 based on its sales, while the company’s market value has seen a 1699-fold increase.

Timmer points out that Apple’s price has increased in tandem with sales growth and valuation growth: “Apple’s price has grown 1,457 times since 1996, while its price-to-sales ratio has grown 30 times. . If valuation growth is an exponent of sales growth (according to Metcalfe’s law), then the price should increase as an exponent of both metrics. For Apple, he did it ”.

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Then he calculates Bitcoin’s valuation by applying Metcalfe’s law, which says that the valuation of a certain network is proportional to the square of the number of users: “Bitcoin’s valuation has increased 867 times since 2011, while its price has increased by 640,633 times. If we apply Metcalfe’s law and calculate the square of 867, we get 751.111. This is roughly in line with the realized price gain of 640,633x. Timmer concludes that bitcoin and Apple follow a similar growth path.

In an October interview with CNBC, the Fidelity executive predicted that the price of Bitcoin would reach $ 100,000 by 2023. He sees bitcoin as a version of gold, which is considered a traditional safe haven. “Yet despite being bullish on bitcoin, Timmer is convinced that bitcoin will not threaten fiat currenciespredicting that the largest cryptocurrency will actually help national currencies to maintain their domain “.